Saturday, March 18, 2006

Modules: Risk and ambiguity

Distinct regions of the human brain are activated when people are faced with ambiguous choices versus choices involving only risk, Duke University Medical Center researchers have discovered.

"We were able to see individual differences in brain activation depending on the person's preferences or aversions to risk and ambiguity," said Scott Huettel, Ph.D., lead author and a neuroscientist with the Brain Imaging and Analysis Center at Duke University. "People who preferred ambiguity had increased activation in the prefrontal cortex, and people who preferred risk had increased activation in the parietal cortex.”
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This study was similar to the Caltech study I used in several earlier blogs (Risky Business). Participants chose between pairs of monetary "gambles." In the risk condition, they were told the odds they would win. In the ambiguous condition, they were not told the odds. Observation was by fMRI. Preference means frequency of choice between the two options.

The interesting finding here is that fMRI can detect different brain modules being activated in people with different behavioral patterns. We can be reasonably sure, of course, that different behavioral patterns imply different brain modules. But now we can observe the match between behavior patterns and brain modules.

I will speculate that a specific psychological set corresponds to activation of a specific aggregation of brain modules. The ideal “economic man” would activate what I call the Vulcan. The behavior would be properly Vulcan: logical and without emotion. I suppose this is the system activated by economists and statisticians when confronted with a task.

The ideal economic man would never pay for a lottery chance. A simple calculation or simple logic will always show that this is a loser’s game in the long run. But some people pay for lottery tickets, even though they “know” how to determine the long term prospects. They are clearly not calling on the Vulcan modules.

Some people, including psychologists and economists, will express astonishment and disapproval at this inconsistency of behavior. I see no inconsistency at all. If I don’t start my calendar program, I will not get reminders about my schedule. My computer “knows” about the reminders but it will not access them unless the appropriate module is active.

These risk-ambiguity studies with fMRI are most likely studying the activation of the Vulcan modules versus the activation of other modules. I hope they will find ways to help more people activate their Vulcan modules. Vulcans know how to manage risk and uncertainty.

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